what say you little fella? Come on now, you can do it. Something negative.
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
Michael J. Yee (Analyst)
Event
Reporting WK monthly sales for April 2015.
GILD: Harvoni WK April retail sales are $1527M (-2% mo/mo); Sovaldi WK April retail sales are $283M (-2% mo/mo)
This is the fist time that month-over-month Harvoni sales have declined, and we are watching closely.
WK capture rate for Harvoni was 133% last quarter. Applying this capture rate and assuming similar -2% mo/mo trends for May and June, Harvoni is already tracking toward $3.4B for Q2, above cons $2.7B USA. Our IMS APP accounts for 43% gross-to-net for Q2 and predicts Q2 Harvoni sales of $2.8B USA.
Assuming that Sovaldi continues declining 2% mo/mo, Sovaldi is tracking toward $399M (WK capture rate of 209% from last quarter), which is in line with consensus of $400M USA and our IMS APP estimate of $382M.
Together, the Harvoni+Sovaldi franchise is tracking toward ~$3.8B in US sales, higher than IMS script predicted revenues of $3.2B USA and consensus $3.1B USA. As a reminder, GILD reported Q1:15 $3.4B USA, which beat cons $2.6B USA.
WK "sales" appear very strong and imply revenue numbers that suggest another beat in Q2, but IMS scripts suggest sales in line with consensus—this may result from taking a 40%+ gross to net into account in our IMS APP.
PCYC: Imbruvica WK April retail sales are $61M (+7% mo/mo), tracking toward $232M vs. our estimate $211M.
We use last quarter's capture rate of 84% and estimate same +7% growth for May and June. We note that WK capture rates for Imbruvica have been changing recently (from stable 90%+ earlier last year to 77% Q4:14 and 84% Q1:15), and April's +7% mo/mo growth is much higher than IMS scripts growth (+1% Apr/Mar).
BIIB: Tecfidera April retail sales are $296M (+3% mo/mo), tracking toward $712M USA, below cons $724M USA but in line with our estimate of $712M USA.
· Tecfidera retail sales capture rate was 125% in Q1:15. Applying this capture rate and conservatively estimating flat May and June sales (IMS Apr:March scripts were flat), Tecfidera US sales are tracking toward $712M for Q2:15. On the other hand, assuming +3% growth for both May and June would suggest $734M.
CELG: Pomalyst April sales are $42M (+4% mo/mo), tracking toward $146M USA vs. cons $147M USA.
· Pomalyst WK average capture rate over the last year has been 89%. If we apply this same capture rate to Q2 and assume similar +4% mo/mo growth for May and June, this is tracking toward $146M in the US, in line with consensus $147M USA.
CELG: Otezla April sales are 44M (+21% mo/mo), tracking to $93M vs. cons $85M WW.
Even conservative assumptions of flat May and June and using Q1:15 capture rate of 143% suggest that Otezla is tracking to $93M in Q2. However, WK capture rate fluctuated from a fairly accurate 97% for Q4:14 to 143% for Q1:15, and thus WK Q2 estimates may be inaccurate if capture rates continue to fluctuate.
RBC Capital Markets, LLC
Michael J. Yee (Analyst)
Event
Reporting WK monthly sales for April 2015.
GILD: Harvoni WK April retail sales are $1527M (-2% mo/mo); Sovaldi WK April retail sales are $283M (-2% mo/mo)
This is the fist time that month-over-month Harvoni sales have declined, and we are watching closely.
WK capture rate for Harvoni was 133% last quarter. Applying this capture rate and assuming similar -2% mo/mo trends for May and June, Harvoni is already tracking toward $3.4B for Q2, above cons $2.7B USA. Our IMS APP accounts for 43% gross-to-net for Q2 and predicts Q2 Harvoni sales of $2.8B USA.
Assuming that Sovaldi continues declining 2% mo/mo, Sovaldi is tracking toward $399M (WK capture rate of 209% from last quarter), which is in line with consensus of $400M USA and our IMS APP estimate of $382M.
Together, the Harvoni+Sovaldi franchise is tracking toward ~$3.8B in US sales, higher than IMS script predicted revenues of $3.2B USA and consensus $3.1B USA. As a reminder, GILD reported Q1:15 $3.4B USA, which beat cons $2.6B USA.
WK "sales" appear very strong and imply revenue numbers that suggest another beat in Q2, but IMS scripts suggest sales in line with consensus—this may result from taking a 40%+ gross to net into account in our IMS APP.
PCYC: Imbruvica WK April retail sales are $61M (+7% mo/mo), tracking toward $232M vs. our estimate $211M.
We use last quarter's capture rate of 84% and estimate same +7% growth for May and June. We note that WK capture rates for Imbruvica have been changing recently (from stable 90%+ earlier last year to 77% Q4:14 and 84% Q1:15), and April's +7% mo/mo growth is much higher than IMS scripts growth (+1% Apr/Mar).
BIIB: Tecfidera April retail sales are $296M (+3% mo/mo), tracking toward $712M USA, below cons $724M USA but in line with our estimate of $712M USA.
· Tecfidera retail sales capture rate was 125% in Q1:15. Applying this capture rate and conservatively estimating flat May and June sales (IMS Apr:March scripts were flat), Tecfidera US sales are tracking toward $712M for Q2:15. On the other hand, assuming +3% growth for both May and June would suggest $734M.
CELG: Pomalyst April sales are $42M (+4% mo/mo), tracking toward $146M USA vs. cons $147M USA.
· Pomalyst WK average capture rate over the last year has been 89%. If we apply this same capture rate to Q2 and assume similar +4% mo/mo growth for May and June, this is tracking toward $146M in the US, in line with consensus $147M USA.
CELG: Otezla April sales are 44M (+21% mo/mo), tracking to $93M vs. cons $85M WW.
Even conservative assumptions of flat May and June and using Q1:15 capture rate of 143% suggest that Otezla is tracking to $93M in Q2. However, WK capture rate fluctuated from a fairly accurate 97% for Q4:14 to 143% for Q1:15, and thus WK Q2 estimates may be inaccurate if capture rates continue to fluctuate.
Otezla up 21% tracking to $93millon Q2
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